Friday, October 12, 2012

Investing in Facebook right after the IPO is a case study in what not to do.


Sadly, investing in Facebook right after the IPO is a case study in what not to do.  It debuted at $38 dollars a share and is now at $19.54.  So, hypothetically for someone who invested $10,000 in a long position lost roughly 48.5% or $4857.  The question now is why was this a bad investment and how can folks make a better choice in the future.  Please note I'm not saying that Facebook as a company is doomed.  Hopefully they will do well in the future.

Data is your friend when it comes to investing.  How can you use it to improve your odds?

  • Options: I do not know for sure but I am guessing that there was little or no options data available prior to the IPO.  http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=FB+Options is a good example of call and put data.  If you are going buy stock, or take a long position, does it jive with the call options volume and the call versus put volume?  It's okay to "fight the market" if you have good reason, if not do you really want to take that gamble?
  • Investors.com: Investors.com is a great resource.  Their CANSLIM strategy is pretty good.  The do some good ratings on stocks too.  Get a free trial and try this http://research.investors.com/stock-checkup/nasdaq-facebook-inc-cl-a-fb.aspx .  To get to the point, they rank FB quite poorly.  They use a variety of fundamental and technical indicators and have good charts as well.  They generally warn folks to stay away from IPOs also.
  • Analyst opinionhttp://finance.yahoo.com/q/ao?s=FB+Analyst+Opinion is an example of analyst rating data for Facebook.  The average rating is in the hold territory so take this with a "grain of salt".  However, this is good to consider again because it can affect stocks and do you really want to "fight the market"?
  • Chart action: How does the stock chart look.  FB's chart above is a mess.  It is way below the IPO and below its simple moving averages also.  Google finance and Finviz.com are good resources for charts and other data (insider transactions / ownership, etc...)
  • Etc...: There are other things that you may want to consider based on your risk tolerance, strategy, etc...  The list above is not meant to be exhaustive by any means.
I tried to warn folks that I know about FB before the IPO.  Unfortunately, some people still lost money.  Maybe some will do okay in the long run (years)...  Cheers.


“Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.” - Seneca

Disclaimer: Please only use this information with a grain of salt and at your own risk / for educational purposes. I am not an investment advisor so please seek professional help if that's what you're looking for.
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Sunday, July 1, 2012

Thankful for 401K return through Q2 - 2012

I am thankful for my self-managed 401K return through Q2 2012.  It is 31.8%!  I may have taken a small hit last year, in my other account, with an algorithm experiment but this year is going well thankfully.  I will be the first to recognize that it is best to be not get full of oneself because the market can humble one quickly if one is not careful.

There are lots of great resources out there if you would like to get started investing / trading stocks.

Here are several.
Cheers.


“Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.” - Seneca





Disclaimer: Please only use this information with a grain of salt and at your own risk / for educational purposes. I am not an investment advisor so please seek professional help if that's what you're looking for.
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Wednesday, June 27, 2012

AAPL update before Q2 earnings 2012

The fruit stand, aka Apple, is trucking along despite the worries of some over the mess in Europe and the seeming lack of political will to "do the right thing".  Some have similar concerns for the USA regarding the "Fiscal Cliff" and national debt.

Back to AAPL though, how do you feel it'll fare for its quarter two earnings of 2012 in a few weeks?  For the short term the call options volume looks relatively good up to $610.  The analyst opinion still looks good also with a mean target of $713 (43 analysts).  There's a variety of fundamental data out there too.  Insider transactions look favorable also.

There are rumors that the iPhone 5 is coming around October but who knows...  Best of luck with your trading / investing.

For other stock ideas, check out investors.com.  They have a free trial if you need access.  Cheers. (AAPL graph source - google.com/finance)




“Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.” - Seneca





Disclaimer: Please only use this information with a grain of salt and at your own risk / for educational purposes. I am not an investment advisor so please seek professional help if that's what you're looking for.
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Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Data for The Fruit Stand (aka Apple - AAPL)


Here's some recent data for The fruit stand , also know as Apple (AAPL).  According to Yahoo Finance, their mean price target is roughly $707.  The call options volume looks pretty good up to the range of $650 - $670 so far.  Finviz.com has some good data too on insider transactions, short interest, and a variety of other data points.  It should be interesting to see what happens when, as some are guessing, in the near future that Apple announces the iPhone 5.

I'm still holding long positions by the way.  Best of luck with your trading and/or investing. Cheers.

“Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.” - Seneca





Disclaimer: Please only use this information with a grain of salt and at your own risk / for educational purposes. I am not an investment advisor so please seek professional help if that's what you're looking for.
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Saturday, March 31, 2012

Return for 1st quarter of 2012

I am thankful to report that the return for my self-managed 401K for the first quarter of 2012 is 35.4%.
My other account seems to be about the same but the reporting lags a bit (roughly 33% through the end of 2/2012).

It's been an interesting year so far with the issues in Europe.  Although the situation seems to be improving somewhat - http://www.bloomberg.com/video/89345081/ .

I'm still holding long positions in AAPL by the way.  More interesting data here: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=AAPL+Options , http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ao?s=AAPL+Analyst+Opinion , http://research.investors.com/quotes/nasdaq-apple-inc-aapl.aspx?fromsearch=1 , http://research.investors.com/stockcheckup/nasdaq-apple-inc-aapl.aspx .

Good luck with your trading / investing.  Cheers.

Disclaimer: Please only use this information with a grain of salt and at your own risk / for educational purposes. I am not an investment advisor so please seek professional help if that's what you're looking for.
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Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Update 3/20/12

Apologies for not updating this sooner.  I was stopped out of my long position in Apple the other day at $590. I might consider another long position, or positions, in AAPL.  The data (call volume, analyst price targets, sales, etc...) looks pretty good so far.

It'll be interesting to see how the market reacts to the dividend and stock buyback initiative.  There's still concerns about Europe and China also...  Best of luck with your investing / trading.  Cheers.

Update: I bought back into AAPL at roughly $595.94.  Have a good one.

Disclaimer: Please only use this information with a grain of salt and at your own risk / for educational purposes. I am not an investment advisor so please seek professional help if that's what you're looking for.
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Thursday, March 1, 2012

Still bullish on the fruit stand and iPad 3 is on the way.

I may sound like a broken record but I am still bullish on AAPL. An announcement regarding the iPad 3 is due on 3/7.  Call options volume still looks good and other technical data points and fundamentals look favorable as well.  There were some interesting Bloomberg podcasts recently regarding the overall market and Apple as well.  Good luck with your trading / investing.  Cheers.

Disclaimer: Please only use this information with a grain of salt and at your own risk / for educational purposes. I am not an investment advisor so please seek professional help if that's what you're looking for.
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Wednesday, February 15, 2012

AAPL again

I bought another long position in AAPL this morning.  There's still uncertainty regarding Greece.  However, Apple should be fine in my view regardless.  Good luck with your trading / investing.  Cheers.

Disclaimer: Please only use this information with a grain of salt and at your own risk / for educational purposes. I am not an investment advisor so please seek professional help if that's what you're looking for.
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Friday, February 10, 2012

Update on AAPL

I sold part of my AAPL position yesterday for an overall gain of just under 18%. It was above the price target that I was previously tracking and it seemed like a good selling point given the call options volume (yesterday).  I might reconsider another long position with Apple if it makes sense.  The mean price target is still looking good and today the call volume looks decent around 505 which isn't too bad.  Although there seems to be a undertow in the broader market right now due to Greece's indecisiveness.  Good luck with your trading / investing!  Cheers.

Disclaimer: Please only use this information with a grain of salt and at your own risk / for educational purposes. I am not an investment advisor so please seek professional help if that's what you're looking for.
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Saturday, February 4, 2012

90 Seconds with Art Cashin: Will the ECB Take a Haircut?

Here's an interesting, and brief, market update from the respectable Art Cashin.
 

I still have a long position in AAPL.  I plan to do a bit more stock screening soon also to likely buy another small position in a different company.

Please leave a comment with any feedback or things that you'd like to see on this blog and I'll do my best to respond.  Cheers.

Disclaimer: Please only use this information with a grain of salt and at your own risk / for educational purposes. I am not an investment advisor so please seek professional help if that's what you're looking for.
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Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Apple had a great quarter (1/24/2012 earnings)

In case you have not heard, Apple had a great quarter.  Marketwatch has a good article on what their results were.  Last time that I checked AAPL was up to $452 in after-hours trading.  It should be interesting to see what their outlook is given that they'll start selling the iPhone in China soon; other rumors abound too of course (iPad 3, iPhone 5, sales in India).  Cheers.

Disclaimer: Please only use this information with a grain of salt and at your own risk / for educational purposes. I am not an investment advisor so please seek professional help if that's what you're looking for.
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Friday, January 20, 2012

Invest in a hedge fund? It's easier than you'd think.

Invest in a hedge fund? It's easier than you'd think.  Interactive Brokers now offers individuals with $25,000 or more the opportunity to invest in hedge funds.

If this appeals to you, please use caution.  In 2011, several hedge funds did not fare so well.  Other sources refer to this as well.  Cheers.

Disclaimer: Please only use this information with a grain of salt and at your own risk / for educational purposes. I am not an investment advisor so please seek professional help if that's what you're looking for.
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Tuesday, January 17, 2012

AAPL earnings 1/24/12

Apple's earnings are coming up on 1/24/12.  According to Yahoo finance the mean price target is $508.  What's your opinion on AAPL?  I'm bullish but then I also have a long position in AAPL.  Good luck with your trading / investing.  Cheers.

Disclaimer: Please only use this information with a grain of salt and at your own risk / for educational purposes. I am not an investment advisor so please seek professional help if that's what you're looking for.
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Monday, January 9, 2012

'A' is for automation

Have you considered using automation as part of your equity screening process?  It saves a considerable amount of time and can be done with pretty simple programs, such as using C# code.

I'm not necessarily suggesting using automation for trading but if you choose to do so more power to you.  I'd suggest testing your system and algorithm thoroughly before doing so though.

I still hold a position in AAPL by the way.  Cheers.

Disclaimer: Please only use this information with a grain of salt and at your own risk / for educational purposes. I am not an investment advisor so please seek professional help if that's what you're looking for.
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